Wolves 2–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Wolves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

A. Le Fondre 85'

D. Edwards 65'

J. Guðmundsson 55'

8/29/2015

Championship · Round 5Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wolves52%

×Draw25%

Charlton23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.94

Wolves

1.57

Charlton

0.94

Wolves creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

1.06

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Wolves

1.50

Charlton

0.82

allows per match

Wolves

1.06

Charlton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

77%

Wolves or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

48%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

27%

Charlton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

79%

Wolves 2+ goals

46%

Wolves 3+ goals

21%

Charlton 1+ goals

61%

Charlton 2+ goals

24%

Charlton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

70%

Charlton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.50 + Charlton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Charlton attack 0.82 + Wolves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wolves scores more

52%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

23%

Wolves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Vetokele← S. Makienok

23'

Ahmed Kashi

46'

E. Ba← K. Ahearne-Grant

55'

J. Guðmundsson↳ Vetokele

62'

S. Ojo← K. McDonald

62'

A. Le Fondre← N. Dicko

65'

D. Edwards

85'

A. Le Fondre↳ S. Ojo

88'

J. Wallace← B. Afobe

90'

J. Jackson← Z. Bergdich

Wolves

Charlton

30

Pope

20

Solly

19

▼

5

21

12

7

⚽

Guðmunds

3

Kashi

8

Cousins

9

▼

Makienok

18

▼

1

3

2

23

16

30

7

4

⚽

Edwards

11

▼

McDonald

9

▼

Dicko

10

▼

Afobe

62'▲S. Ojo←▼K. McDonald

62'▲A. Le Fondre←▼N. Dicko

88'▲J. Wallace←▼B. Afobe

Wolves substitutes

20Ojo29Fondre12Wallace18Iorfa19Price26Martínez48Enobakhare

18'▲Vetokele←▼S. Makienok

46'▲E. Ba←▼K. Ahearne-Grant

90'▲J. Jackson←▼Z. Bergdich

Charlton substitutes

14Vetokele22Ba4Jackson6Sarr24Charles-Cook26Lennon27Mitov