Wolves 2–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Premier League

Wolves

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cardiff

R. Jiménez 18'

Diogo Jota 16'

3/2/2019

Premier League · Round 29Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wolves46%

×Draw27%

Cardiff26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Wolves

1.38

Cardiff

0.97

Wolves creates 42% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

0.68

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Wolves

1.14

Cardiff

0.68

allows per match

Wolves

1.26

Cardiff

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

74%

Wolves or Cardiff

73%

Draw or Cardiff

54%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

22%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Cardiff 1+ goals

62%

Cardiff 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

64%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.14 + Cardiff defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cardiff attack 0.68 + Wolves defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolves scores more

46%

level

27%

Cardiff scores more

26%

Wolves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Diogo Jota

Wolves · F

8.4

Match Events

16'

Diogo Jota↳ R. Jiménez

18'

R. Jiménez↳ Diogo Jota

34'

Ryan Bennett

45'

Sol Bamba

45+2'

B. Écuélé Manga← S. Bamba

47'

M. Doherty← Diogo Jota

59'

C. Paterson← B. Reid

62'

Lee Peltier

64'

João Moutinho← M. Gibbs-White

75'

Ivan Cavaleiro← Adama Traoré

76'

R. Healey← O. Niasse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesCardiff

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots12

7Corners8

11Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

11Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

473Total Passes354

378Accurate Passes242

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0