Wolves 0–1 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier 49'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 24Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Wolves37%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.52

Wolves

1.48

Bournemouth

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

1.08

creates per match

1.57

1.46

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Bournemouth

1.57

allows per match

Wolves

1.46

Bournemouth

1.89

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.16scores less

Bournemouth-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

61%

Wolves or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

63%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

77%

Wolves 2+ goals

43%

Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

78%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

45%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

49%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Bournemouth defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bournemouth attack 1.57 + Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolves scores more

37%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

39%

Bournemouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Rúben Neves

Wolves · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Philip Billing

46'

J. Rothwell← J. Lerma

49'

M. Tavernier↳ D. Solanke

57'

J. Anthony← M. Tavernier

58'

A. Semenyo← D. Ouattara

61'

Daniel Podence← Matheus Nunes

62'

R. Aït Nouri← Hugo Bueno

70'

Adam Smith

70'

Diego Costa← Matheus Cunha

70'

João Gomes← João Moutinho

72'

Rayan Aït Nouri

73'

Marcos Senesi

74'

João Gomes

77'

R. Jiménez← Adama Traoré

81'

C. Mepham← H. Traorè

85'

M. Viña← J. Zemura

86'

Pablo Sarabia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBournemouth

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots5

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.07

12Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots5

4On Target1

5Off Target1

6Blocked3

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

616Total Passes291

520Accurate Passes197

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0