Wolves 2–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bournemouth

Ivan Cavaleiro 90+4'

R. Jiménez 12'

12/15/2018

Premier League · Round 17Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Wolves38%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.48

Wolves

1.50

Bournemouth

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

1.11

creates per match

1.53

1.43

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Bournemouth

1.88

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

63%

Wolves or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

62%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

78%

Wolves 2+ goals

44%

Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

51%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolves scores more

38%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

37%

Wolves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Coady

Wolves · D

7.6

Match Events

12'

R. Jiménez↳ Diogo Jota

34'

Steve Cook

36'

Diego Rico← T. Mings

39'

Jefferson Lerma

46'

Hélder Costa← Diogo Jota

58'

C. Wilson← J. Ibe

66'

Hélder Costa

75'

R. Saïss← M. Gibbs-White

80'

L. Mousset← J. Stanislas

89'

Ivan Cavaleiro← R. Jiménez

90+4'

Ivan Cavaleiro↳ Hélder Costa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBournemouth

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots13

5Corners3

15Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked5

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

389Total Passes633

281Accurate Passes535

72%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0