Wolves 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Aston Villa

A. Young 36' (OG)

Jonny Castro 7'

O. Watkins 86' (pen)

4/2/2022

Premier League · Round 31Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Wolves39%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.30

Wolves

1.40

Aston Villa

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.12

creates per match

1.13

1.48

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Wolves

1.12

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Wolves

1.48

Aston Villa

1.68

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.12scores less

Aston Villa+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

65%

Wolves or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

61%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

41%

Wolves 3+ goals

17%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

73%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

37%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

53%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.68 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.12 + Aston Villa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Wolves defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolves scores more

39%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

35%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. McGinn

Aston Villa · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Jonny Castro

13'

A. Young← L. Digne

24'

Conor Coady

36'

A. YoungOwn goal

38'

John McGinn

66'

Jonny Otto

68'

Hwang Hee-Chan← Daniel Podence

72'

Douglas Luiz← M. Sanson

74'

Pedro Neto← Trincão

74'

E. Buendía← Philippe Coutinho

86'

O. WatkinsPenalty

90+3'

90+2'

90+4'

90+3'

90+1'

Chiquinho← Fábio Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesAston

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots15

4Corners9

15Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots15

5On Target5

4Off Target7

2Blocked3

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

421Total Passes441

337Accurate Passes371

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1