Wolves 0–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

A. El Ghazi 90+4' (pen)

12/12/2020

Premier League · Round 12Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Wolves40%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.28

Wolves

1.39

Aston Villa

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.11

creates per match

1.13

1.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Aston Villa

1.67

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

66%

Wolves or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

60%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

37%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

53%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

40%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

34%

Wolves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. Martínez

Aston Villa · G

8.7

Match Events

14'

29'

30'

43'

75'

A. El Ghazi← B. Traoré

77'

Leander Dendoncker

80'

Rúben Neves← L. Dendoncker

81'

81'

83'

85'

85'

88'

90'

90'

90+7'

M. Nakamba← J. Ramsey

90+4'

A. El GhaziPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesAston

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots13

5Corners8

23Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots13

7On Target2

4Off Target6

5Blocked5

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

348Total Passes331

267Accurate Passes253

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

23Fouls15

4Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2