Wolves U18 1–2 Liverpool U18: Result & Stats

Wolves U18

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Liverpool U18

M. Mané 30'

J. Sonni-Lambie 66'

A. Onanuga 59'

3/15/2025

League #695 · North - 21Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wolves U1840%

×Draw23%

Liverpool U1838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolves U18Expected goals in this matchLiverpool U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.71

Wolves U18

1.75

Liverpool U18

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.27

creates per match

1.78

1.64

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Wolves U18

1.27

Liverpool U18

1.78

allows per match

Wolves U18

1.64

Liverpool U18

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves U18+0.00on par

Liverpool U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves U18 ↓

Liverpool U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wolves U18 or draw

62%

Wolves U18 or Liverpool U18

77%

Draw or Liverpool U18

60%

Winning margin

Wolves U18 wins by 2+

20%

Liverpool U18 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves U18 1+ goals

83%

Wolves U18 2+ goals

52%

Wolves U18 3+ goals

25%

Liverpool U18 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool U18 2+ goals

51%

Liverpool U18 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wolves U18 (draw refunded)

51%

Liverpool U18 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves U18 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Liverpool U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves U18 attack 1.27 + Liverpool U18 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Liverpool U18 attack 1.78 + Wolves U18 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves U18 scores more

40%

level

23%

Liverpool U18 scores more

38%

Wolves U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolves U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Mané

46'

D. Osifo← J. Wilcox

59'

A. Onanuga↳ R. Ngumoha

60'

E. Saba← E. Elendu

62'

B. Trueman← A. Onanuga

62'

J. Bradshaw← T. Martin

66'

C. McLeod← J. Mensah-Greenwood

66'

J. Sonni-Lambie

85'

R. Bowen← M. Stevens

Wolves

Liverpool

1

Hall

3

Williams

5

Owen

10

⚽

▼

2

8

6

4

11

A

Ngumoha

7

▼

Martin

9

⚽

1

3

5

11

4

▼

Elendu

8

Marwa

6

▼

Stevens

2

Ford

7

▼

Wilcox

10

⚽

Mané

9

▼

Mensah-Gr

Manager: R. Walker

46'▲D. Osifo←▼J. Wilcox

60'▲E. Saba←▼E. Elendu

66'▲C. McLeod←▼J. Mensah-Greenwood

85'▲R. Bowen←▼M. Stevens

Wolves U18 substitutes

14Osifo12Saba15McLeod16Bowen13Grieves

Manager: M. Bridge-Wilkinson

62'▲B. Trueman←▼A. Onanuga

62'▲J. Bradshaw←▼T. Martin

Liverpool U18 substitutes

15Trueman16Bradshaw14Ahmed13Bernard12Enahoro-Marcus