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Wolverhampton W vs West Ham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wolverhampton W
Wolverhampton W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
West Ham W
West Ham W
1/29/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundNew Bucks Head Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wolverhampton W48%
×Draw20%
West Ham W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolverhampton W
2.28
West Ham W
1.84

Wolverhampton W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Wolverhampton W
3.56
West Ham W
2.00

allows per match

Wolverhampton W
1.69
West Ham W
1.00

finishing

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par
West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolverhampton W ↓

West Ham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Wolverhampton W or draw
68%
Wolverhampton W or West Ham W
80%
Draw or West Ham W
52%

Winning margin

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+
29%
West Ham W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals
90%
Wolverhampton W 2+ goals
66%
Wolverhampton W 3+ goals
39%
West Ham W 1+ goals
84%
West Ham W 2+ goals
55%
West Ham W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)
60%
West Ham W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolverhampton W at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

West Ham W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolverhampton W attack 3.56 + West Ham W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

West Ham W attack 2.00 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolverhampton W scores more
48%
level
20%
West Ham W scores more
32%

Wolverhampton W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolverhampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Wolverhampton W 0–2 West Ham W

West Ham W beat Wolverhampton W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at New Bucks Head Ground in Telford, Shropshire.