Wolverhampton W 2–1 Rugby Borough W: Result & Stats

Wolverhampton W

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rugby Borough W

10/26/2025

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundNew Bucks Head

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wolverhampton W36%

×Draw20%

Rugby Borough W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolverhampton WExpected goals in this matchRugby Borough W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.34

Wolverhampton W

2.12

Rugby Borough W

2.34

Rugby Borough W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

3.56

creates per match

3.00

1.69

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Wolverhampton W

3.56

Rugby Borough W

3.00

allows per match

Wolverhampton W

1.69

Rugby Borough W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par

Rugby Borough W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolverhampton W ↓

Rugby Borough W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Wolverhampton W or draw

56%

Wolverhampton W or Rugby Borough W

80%

Draw or Rugby Borough W

64%

Winning margin

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+

20%

Rugby Borough W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals

88%

Wolverhampton W 2+ goals

62%

Wolverhampton W 3+ goals

35%

Rugby Borough W 1+ goals

90%

Rugby Borough W 2+ goals

67%

Rugby Borough W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)

45%

Rugby Borough W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wolverhampton W at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Rugby Borough W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wolverhampton W attack 3.56 + Rugby Borough W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Rugby Borough W attack 3.00 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wolverhampton W scores more

36%

level

20%

Rugby Borough W scores more

44%

Rugby Borough W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rugby Borough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff