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Wolverhampton W vs Nottingham Forest W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wolverhampton W
Wolverhampton W
FT
0 – 4
Nottingham Forest W
Nottingham Forest W
12/5/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundCKW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wolverhampton W34%
×Draw18%
Nottingham Forest W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolverhampton W
2.35
Nottingham Forest W
2.80

Nottingham Forest W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wolverhampton W
3.56
Nottingham Forest W
3.92

allows per match

Wolverhampton W
1.69
Nottingham Forest W
1.15

finishing

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolverhampton W ↓

Nottingham Forest W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Wolverhampton W or draw
52%
Wolverhampton W or Nottingham Forest W
82%
Draw or Nottingham Forest W
66%

Winning margin

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+
19%
Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals
90%
Wolverhampton W 2+ goals
68%
Wolverhampton W 3+ goals
41%
Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals
94%
Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals
76%
Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)
41%
Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolverhampton W at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Nottingham Forest W away — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolverhampton W attack 3.56 + Nottingham Forest W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.35

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.92 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolverhampton W scores more
34%
level
18%
Nottingham Forest W scores more
48%

Nottingham Forest W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolverhampton W vs Nottingham Forest W

Nottingham Forest W beat Wolverhampton W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at CKW Stadium in Wolverhampton, West Midlands.