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Wolverhampton W vs Northampton Town — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wolverhampton W
Wolverhampton W
FT
5 – 0
Northampton Town
Northampton Town
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundNew Bucks Head Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wolverhampton W64%
×Draw17%
Northampton Town20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolverhampton W
2.98
Northampton Town
1.65

Wolverhampton W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wolverhampton W
3.56
Northampton Town
1.60

allows per match

Wolverhampton W
1.69
Northampton Town
2.40

finishing

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par
Northampton Town+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolverhampton W ↓

Northampton Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Wolverhampton W or draw
80%
Wolverhampton W or Northampton Town
83%
Draw or Northampton Town
36%

Winning margin

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+
44%
Northampton Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals
95%
Wolverhampton W 2+ goals
79%
Wolverhampton W 3+ goals
56%
Northampton Town 1+ goals
81%
Northampton Town 2+ goals
49%
Northampton Town 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)
76%
Northampton Town (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolverhampton W at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Northampton Town away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolverhampton W attack 3.56 + Northampton Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.98

Northampton Town attack 1.60 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wolverhampton W scores more
64%
level
17%
Northampton Town scores more
20%

Wolverhampton W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wolverhampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Wolverhampton W 5–0 Northampton Town

Wolverhampton W beat Northampton Town 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at New Bucks Head Ground in Telford, Shropshire.