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Wolverhampton W vs Manchester United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wolverhampton W
Wolverhampton W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
2/8/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 5th RoundNew Bucks Head Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wolverhampton W38%
×Draw20%
Manchester United W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolverhampton W
2.13
Manchester United W
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wolverhampton W
3.56
Manchester United W
2.80

allows per match

Wolverhampton W
1.69
Manchester United W
0.70

finishing

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolverhampton W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Wolverhampton W or draw
58%
Wolverhampton W or Manchester United W
80%
Draw or Manchester United W
62%

Winning margin

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+
21%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals
88%
Wolverhampton W 2+ goals
63%
Wolverhampton W 3+ goals
35%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
89%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
65%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)
47%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolverhampton W at home — creates 3.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolverhampton W attack 3.56 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 2.13

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wolverhampton W scores more
38%
level
20%
Manchester United W scores more
42%

Manchester United W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolverhampton W vs Manchester United W

Manchester United W beat Wolverhampton W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at New Bucks Head Ground in Telford, Shropshire.