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Wologizi vs Gardnersville — LFA First Division 2020

Wologizi
Wologizi
FT
1 – 1
Gardnersville
Gardnersville
2/21/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wologizi55%
×Draw23%
Gardnersville22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wologizi
1.82
Gardnersville
1.06

Wologizi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wologizi
1.71
Gardnersville
1.13

allows per match

Wologizi
1.00
Gardnersville
1.93

finishing

Wologizi+0.00on par
Gardnersville+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wologizi ↓

Gardnersville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wologizi or draw
78%
Wologizi or Gardnersville
77%
Draw or Gardnersville
45%

Winning margin

Wologizi wins by 2+
31%
Gardnersville wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wologizi 1+ goals
84%
Wologizi 2+ goals
54%
Wologizi 3+ goals
27%
Gardnersville 1+ goals
65%
Gardnersville 2+ goals
29%
Gardnersville 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wologizi (draw refunded)
71%
Gardnersville (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wologizi at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Gardnersville away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wologizi attack 1.71 + Gardnersville defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Gardnersville attack 1.13 + Wologizi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wologizi scores more
55%
level
23%
Gardnersville scores more
22%

Wologizi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wologizi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Wologizi 1–1 Gardnersville

Wologizi and Gardnersville drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on February 21, 2026.