Wologizi 2–1 Fassell: Result & Stats

Wologizi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fassell

10/26/2025

LFA First Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wologizi31%

×Draw26%

Fassell43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WologiziExpected goals in this matchFassell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.44

Wologizi

1.20

Fassell

1.44

Fassell creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

1.89

1.00

allows per match

0.68

creates per match

Wologizi

1.71

Fassell

1.89

allows per match

Wologizi

1.00

Fassell

0.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wologizi+0.00on par

Fassell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wologizi ↓

Fassell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wologizi or draw

57%

Wologizi or Fassell

74%

Draw or Fassell

69%

Winning margin

Wologizi wins by 2+

13%

Fassell wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wologizi 1+ goals

70%

Wologizi 2+ goals

34%

Wologizi 3+ goals

12%

Fassell 1+ goals

76%

Fassell 2+ goals

42%

Fassell 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wologizi (draw refunded)

42%

Fassell (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wologizi at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Fassell away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wologizi attack 1.71 + Fassell defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fassell attack 1.89 + Wologizi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wologizi scores more

31%

level

26%

Fassell scores more

43%

Fassell at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff