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Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
3/5/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 5WIN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wollongong Wolves46%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2131%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wollongong Wolves
1.80
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.46

Wollongong Wolves creates 23% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.73
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.28
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw
69%
Wollongong Wolves or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
54%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
25%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
83%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
54%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
27%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
77%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
43%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
59%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more
46%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
31%

Wollongong Wolves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Wollongong Wolves beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at WIN Stadium in Wollongong.