Wollongong Wolves 4–0 Hills Brumbies

Wollongong Wolves

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hills Brumbies

3/15/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 6WIN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wollongong Wolves67%

×Draw18%

Hills Brumbies15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wollongong WolvesExpected goals in this matchHills Brumbies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.04

Wollongong Wolves

2.37

Hills Brumbies

1.04

Wollongong Wolves creates 128% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

0.80

1.28

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves

1.73

Hills Brumbies

0.80

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves

1.28

Hills Brumbies

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Hills Brumbies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw

85%

Wollongong Wolves or Hills Brumbies

82%

Draw or Hills Brumbies

33%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+

44%

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals

91%

Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals

68%

Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals

42%

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals

65%

Hills Brumbies 2+ goals

28%

Hills Brumbies 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)

81%

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more

67%

level

18%

Hills Brumbies scores more

15%

Wollongong Wolves at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff