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Wollongong Wolves vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
D. Ryan 73'
B. Kanaizumi 50', 40'
Y. Mustafa 46'
H. Buesnel 6'
L. Smyth 10'
5/5/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 13Albert Butler Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wollongong Wolves56%
×Draw22%
Central Coast II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wollongong Wolves
1.95
Central Coast II
1.14

Wollongong Wolves creates 71% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.73
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.28
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw
78%
Wollongong Wolves or Central Coast II
78%
Draw or Central Coast II
44%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
33%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
86%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
58%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
31%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
68%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
32%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
72%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more
56%
level
22%
Central Coast II scores more
22%

Wollongong Wolves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Buesnel
10'
L. Smyth
40'
B. Kanaizumi
46'
Y. Mustafa
50'
B. Kanaizumi
73'
D. Ryan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wollongong Wolves 5 – 1 Central Coast II

Wollongong Wolves beat Central Coast II 5-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 5, 2024.

Goals: H. Buesnel (6'), L. Smyth (10'), B. Kanaizumi (40', 50'), Y. Mustafa (46'), D. Ryan (73').

The match was played at Albert Butler Park in Wollongong.