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Wolkite Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 1
Mekelle Kenema
Mekelle Kenema
1/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Welkite Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Wolkite Ketema28%
×Draw33%
Mekelle Kenema39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.78
Mekelle Kenema
0.98

Mekelle Kenema creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 43 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Mekelle Kenema
0.63

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Mekelle Kenema
0.91

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Mekelle Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Mekelle Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
61%
Wolkite Ketema or Mekelle Kenema
67%
Draw or Mekelle Kenema
72%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
9%
Mekelle Kenema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
54%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
18%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
4%
Mekelle Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Mekelle Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Mekelle Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
42%
Mekelle Kenema (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Mekelle Kenema away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Mekelle Kenema defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.78

Mekelle Kenema attack 0.63 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
28%
level
33%
Mekelle Kenema scores more
39%

Mekelle Kenema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mekelle Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Mekelle Kenema

Mekelle Kenema beat Wolkite Ketema 1-0 in Premier League on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Welkite Stadium in Welkite.