Wolkite Ketema 0–3 Mekelakeya: Result & Stats

Wolkite Ketema

FT

0 – 3

Mekelakeya

9/21/2024

Premier League · Round 1Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema21%

×Draw28%

Mekelakeya51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolkite KetemaExpected goals in this matchMekelakeya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.34

Wolkite Ketema

0.75

Mekelakeya

1.34

Mekelakeya creates 79% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

0.64

creates per match

1.35

1.33

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema

0.64

Mekelakeya

1.35

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema

1.33

Mekelakeya

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Mekelakeya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw

49%

Wolkite Ketema or Mekelakeya

72%

Draw or Mekelakeya

79%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+

6%

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals

53%

Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals

17%

Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals

4%

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

74%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

39%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)

29%

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.75

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more

21%

level

28%

Mekelakeya scores more

51%

Mekelakeya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff