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Wolkite Ketema vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
2/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema20%
×Draw29%
Kedus Giorgis51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.70
Kedus Giorgis
1.31

Kedus Giorgis creates 87% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 101 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
49%
Wolkite Ketema or Kedus Giorgis
71%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
80%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
6%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
50%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
16%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
3%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
73%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
38%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
28%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
20%
level
29%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
51%

Kedus Giorgis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat Wolkite Ketema 4-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.