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Kedus Giorgis vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
10/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kedus Giorgis43%
×Draw28%
Wolkite Ketema28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.27
Wolkite Ketema
0.96

Kedus Giorgis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
72%
Kedus Giorgis or Wolkite Ketema
72%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
57%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
20%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
72%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
36%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
14%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
62%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
25%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
61%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
43%
level
28%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
28%

Kedus Giorgis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Wolkite Ketema

Kedus Giorgis beat Wolkite Ketema 4-1 in Premier League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.