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Wolkite Ketema vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
11/24/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema25%
×Draw32%
Hadiya Hosaena43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.77
Hadiya Hosaena
1.10

Hadiya Hosaena creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
57%
Wolkite Ketema or Hadiya Hosaena
68%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
75%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
8%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
54%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
18%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
4%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
67%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
30%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
37%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.77

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
25%
level
32%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
43%

Hadiya Hosaena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Hadiya Hosaena

Wolkite Ketema and Hadiya Hosaena drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2022.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.