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Wolkite Ketema vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
6/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema24%
×Draw30%
Fasil Ketema46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.77
Fasil Ketema
1.21

Fasil Ketema creates 57% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
54%
Wolkite Ketema or Fasil Ketema
70%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
76%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
7%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
54%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
18%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
4%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
70%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
34%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
34%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
24%
level
30%
Fasil Ketema scores more
46%

Fasil Ketema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolkite Ketema 0–0 Fasil Ketema

Wolkite Ketema and Fasil Ketema drew 0-0 in Premier League on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.