Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wolkite Ketema vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bahardar
Bahardar
4/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema22%
×Draw30%
Bahardar48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.74
Bahardar
1.25

Bahardar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 103 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
52%
Wolkite Ketema or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
78%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
6%
Bahardar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
52%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
17%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
4%
Bahardar 1+ goals
71%
Bahardar 2+ goals
36%
Bahardar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
31%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
22%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
48%

Bahardar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolkite Ketema 0 – 4 Bahardar

Bahardar beat Wolkite Ketema 4-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.