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Wolkite Ketema vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
2/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema28%
×Draw29%
Awassa Kenema43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.93
Awassa Kenema
1.23

Awassa Kenema creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
57%
Wolkite Ketema or Awassa Kenema
71%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
72%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
10%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
61%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
24%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
7%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
71%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
35%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
39%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.93

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
28%
level
29%
Awassa Kenema scores more
43%

Awassa Kenema at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Awassa Kenema

Awassa Kenema beat Wolkite Ketema 2-1 in Premier League on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.