Wolfurt 1–2 SVG Reichenau: Result & Stats

Wolfurt

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

SVG Reichenau

8/6/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 2Sportplatz Wolfurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wolfurt44%

×Draw23%

SVG Reichenau33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolfurtExpected goals in this matchSVG Reichenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.50

Wolfurt

1.77

SVG Reichenau

1.50

Wolfurt creates 18% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 62 away

1.70

creates per match

1.39

1.62

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Wolfurt

1.70

SVG Reichenau

1.39

allows per match

Wolfurt

1.62

SVG Reichenau

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfurt+0.00on par

SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfurt ↓

SVG Reichenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wolfurt or draw

67%

Wolfurt or SVG Reichenau

77%

Draw or SVG Reichenau

56%

Winning margin

Wolfurt wins by 2+

23%

SVG Reichenau wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wolfurt 1+ goals

83%

Wolfurt 2+ goals

53%

Wolfurt 3+ goals

26%

SVG Reichenau 1+ goals

78%

SVG Reichenau 2+ goals

44%

SVG Reichenau 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wolfurt (draw refunded)

57%

SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfurt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

SVG Reichenau away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfurt attack 1.70 + SVG Reichenau defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

SVG Reichenau attack 1.39 + Wolfurt defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wolfurt scores more

44%

level

23%

SVG Reichenau scores more

33%

Wolfurt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wolfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff