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Wolfurt vs Dornbirner SV — Regionalliga - West 2018

Wolfurt
Wolfurt
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
3/24/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 18Sportplatz Wolfurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wolfurt46%
×Draw22%
Dornbirner SV32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfurt
1.97
Dornbirner SV
1.60

Wolfurt creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wolfurt
1.70
Dornbirner SV
1.57

allows per match

Wolfurt
1.62
Dornbirner SV
2.24

finishing

Wolfurt+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfurt ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wolfurt or draw
68%
Wolfurt or Dornbirner SV
78%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
54%

Winning margin

Wolfurt wins by 2+
26%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolfurt 1+ goals
86%
Wolfurt 2+ goals
58%
Wolfurt 3+ goals
31%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
80%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
47%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wolfurt (draw refunded)
59%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfurt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfurt attack 1.70 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Wolfurt defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolfurt scores more
46%
level
22%
Dornbirner SV scores more
32%

Wolfurt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Wolfurt 4–1 Dornbirner SV

Wolfurt beat Dornbirner SV 4-1 in Regionalliga - West on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wolfurt in Wolfurt.