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Wolfsburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
11/22/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wolfsburg U1948%
×Draw21%
RB Leipzig U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsburg U19
2.11
RB Leipzig U19
1.67

Wolfsburg U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19
2.72
RB Leipzig U19
2.10

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19
1.24
RB Leipzig U19
1.50

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw
69%
Wolfsburg U19 or RB Leipzig U19
79%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
52%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
28%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
88%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
62%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
35%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
81%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
50%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
61%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.72 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.11

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.10 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more
48%
level
21%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
31%

Wolfsburg U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolfsburg U19 1 – 4 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Wolfsburg U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.