Wolfsburg U19 1–0 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paderborn U19

S. Busch 70'

4/1/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 2AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Wolfsburg U1953%

×Draw20%

Paderborn U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.65

Wolfsburg U19

2.35

Paderborn U19

1.65

Wolfsburg U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

2.93

creates per match

2.15

1.14

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.93

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.14

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

73%

Wolfsburg U19 or Paderborn U19

80%

Draw or Paderborn U19

47%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

68%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

41%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

81%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

49%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.93 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.35

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

53%

level

20%

Paderborn U19 scores more

27%

Wolfsburg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Brinkmann← E. Delifer

46'

G. Ermolaev← P. Kohlstädt

46'

M. Kaya← L. Delli Liuni

60'

A. Doci← P. Heller

60'

M. Herrmann← J. Costa

60'

S. Busch← M. Mazzone

68'

J. Zambrano← I. Ansah

70'

S. Busch

85'

T. Brinkjost← N. Mrosek

86'

A. Dugramaci← L. Homann

90'

M. Jasiński← Joâo Pinto

Wolfsburg

Paderborn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Bauer

60'▲A. Doci←▼P. Heller

60'▲M. Herrmann←▼J. Costa

60'▲S. Busch←▼M. Mazzone

86'▲A. Dugramaci←▼L. Homann

90'▲M. Jasiński←▼Joâo Pinto

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

DociHerrmannBuschDugramaciJasińskiSchönmottel

Manager: D. Schmitt

46'▲F. Brinkmann←▼E. Delifer

46'▲G. Ermolaev←▼P. Kohlstädt

46'▲M. Kaya←▼L. Delli Liuni

68'▲J. Zambrano←▼I. Ansah

85'▲T. Brinkjost←▼N. Mrosek

Paderborn U19 substitutes

BrinkmannErmolaevKayaZambranoBrinkjostBrink

U19 Bundesliga: Wolfsburg U19 1–0 Paderborn U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Paderborn U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 1, 2023.

Goals: S. Busch (70').

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Wolfsburg U19 1–0 Paderborn U19