Wolfsburg U19 5–0 Meppen U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Meppen U19

Jessé Costa 84' (pen)

M. Herrmann 80'

A. Børset 45'

J. Akaegbobi 41'

C. Østergaard 4'

5/11/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 26AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wolfsburg U1962%

×Draw18%

Meppen U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.46

Wolfsburg U19

2.65

Meppen U19

1.46

Wolfsburg U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.75

creates per match

1.69

1.23

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.75

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.23

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

80%

Wolfsburg U19 or Meppen U19

82%

Draw or Meppen U19

38%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

42%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

74%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

48%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

77%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

43%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.75 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.65

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

Meppen U19 scores more

20%

Wolfsburg U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Østergaard

15'

N. van der Graaf← M. Zumdieck

41'

J. Akaegbobi

45'

A. Børset

46'

C. Decker← T. Meyer

46'

W .Docter← P. Kassens

57'

L. Köhler← K. Lebersorger

57'

M. Jasiński← C. Østergaard

68'

N. Yacubi← E. Aslanidis

68'

O. Prokopp← P. Hensel

71'

J. Wellinghof← H. Hermes

79'

M. Herrmann← J. Akaegbobi

80'

M. Herrmann

82'

R. Neziraj← J. Hagemann

84'

Jessé CostaPenalty

Wolfsburg

Meppen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Akaegbobi

Manager: D. Bauer

57'▲L. Köhler←▼K. Lebersorger

57'▲M. Jasiński←▼C. Østergaard

68'▲N. Yacubi←▼E. Aslanidis

68'▲O. Prokopp←▼P. Hensel

79'▲M. Herrmann←▼J. Akaegbobi

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

KöhlerJasińskiYacubiProkoppHerrmannKhadasevychBraun

Manager: C. Stammermann

15'▲N. van der Graaf←▼M. Zumdieck

46'▲C. Decker←▼T. Meyer

46'▲W .Docter←▼P. Kassens

71'▲J. Wellinghof←▼H. Hermes

82'▲R. Neziraj←▼J. Hagemann

Meppen U19 substitutes

GraafDecker.DocterWellinghofNezirajHotlos