Wolfsburg U19 3–3 Hamburger SV U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Hamburger SV U19

T. Benedict 66', 13'

J. Bürger 40'

K. Ojo 90+6'

N. Tuppeck 20'

M. Reimers 7'

8/24/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wolfsburg U1954%

×Draw20%

Hamburger SV U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.60

Wolfsburg U19

2.33

Hamburger SV U19

1.60

Wolfsburg U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

2.75

creates per match

1.97

1.23

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.75

Hamburger SV U19

1.97

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.23

Hamburger SV U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

74%

Wolfsburg U19 or Hamburger SV U19

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

46%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

67%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

41%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

80%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

47%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.91 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.75 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hamburger SV U19 attack 1.97 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

54%

level

20%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

26%

Wolfsburg U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

13'

20'

40'

65'

K. Soylu← David Leal Costa

66'

T. Benedict

67'

C. Nana-Sarhene← H. Schümann

67'

M. Sarfo-Adjei← J. Gandert

79'

A. Buljubašić← N. Tuppeck

79'

E. Jaschan← A. Riedel

82'

K. Šimić← T. Benedict

84'

D. Richardt← K. Machado

84'

J. Bugaj← M. Reimers

90+1'

M. Mbassi← N. Yacubi

90+1'

O. Brammer← J. Bürger

90+6'

K. Ojo

Wolfsburg

Hamburger

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Reimers

▼

Schümann

▼

Riedel

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Benedict

▼

Yacubi

Manager: D. Bauer

65'▲K. Soylu←▼David Leal Costa

82'▲K. Šimić←▼T. Benedict

90+1'▲M. Mbassi←▼N. Yacubi

90+1'▲O. Brammer←▼J. Bürger

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

SoyluŠimićMbassiBrammerHoffmannSouliotisKaraman

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

67'▲C. Nana-Sarhene←▼H. Schümann

67'▲M. Sarfo-Adjei←▼J. Gandert

79'▲A. Buljubašić←▼N. Tuppeck

79'▲E. Jaschan←▼A. Riedel

84'▲D. Richardt←▼K. Machado

84'▲J. Bugaj←▼M. Reimers

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

Nana-SarheneSarfo-AdjeiBuljubašićJaschanRichardtBugajLewinski