Wolfsburg U19 2–1 Borussia M'bach U19

Wolfsburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

P. Hensel 72' (pen)

J. Akaegbobi 42' (pen)

C. Güner 26'

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 9AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Wolfsburg U1948%

×Draw21%

Borussia M'bach U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.73

Wolfsburg U19

2.19

Borussia M'bach U19

1.73

Wolfsburg U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

2.93

creates per match

2.32

1.14

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.93

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.14

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

69%

Wolfsburg U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

79%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

52%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

28%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

37%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

82%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

52%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.93 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.19

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

31%

Wolfsburg U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Güner

42'

J. AkaegbobiPenalty

64'

F. Hoxha← J. Uwakhonye

64'

Y. Michaelis← C. Güner

68'

T. Benedict← N. Yacubi

72'

P. HenselPenalty

77'

S. Ketola← F. Fleck

80'

M. Mándity← K. Soylu

85'

E. Khadraoui← A. Muradyan

85'

F. Opoku Mensah← N. Vidic

88'

K. Šimić← J. Akaegbobi

Wolfsburg

Borussia

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Akaegbobi

▼

Yacubi

Manager: D. Bauer

68'▲T. Benedict←▼N. Yacubi

80'▲M. Mándity←▼K. Soylu

88'▲K. Šimić←▼J. Akaegbobi

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

BenedictMándityŠimićBörnerMbassiBrammerNeininger

Manager: O. Kirch

64'▲F. Hoxha←▼J. Uwakhonye

64'▲Y. Michaelis←▼C. Güner

77'▲S. Ketola←▼F. Fleck

85'▲E. Khadraoui←▼A. Muradyan

85'▲F. Opoku Mensah←▼N. Vidic

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

HoxhaMichaelisKetolaKhadraouiMensahBecker

U19 Bundesliga: Wolfsburg U19 2–1 Borussia M'bach U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Borussia M'bach U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: C. Güner (26'), J. Akaegbobi (42' pen), P. Hensel (72' pen).

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Wolfsburg U19 2–1 Borussia M'bach U19