Wolfsburg U19 2–1 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BAK 07 U19

P. Hensel 49' (pen)

N. Yacubi 41'

I. Danfa 46'

11/30/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wolfsburg U1970%

×Draw16%

BAK 07 U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.23

Wolfsburg U19

2.84

BAK 07 U19

1.23

Wolfsburg U19 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

2.90

creates per match

1.33

1.12

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.90

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.12

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

86%

Wolfsburg U19 or BAK 07 U19

84%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

30%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

49%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

94%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

77%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

53%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

71%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

35%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

83%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.90 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.84

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

70%

level

16%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

14%

Wolfsburg U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

N. Yacubi

46'

I. Danfa

49'

P. HenselPenalty

61'

K. Šimić← T. Benedict

69'

K. Soylu← L. Köhler

69'

Y. Chebil← E. Dittrich

84'

A. Bedford← A. Keles

84'

F. Hartmann← M. Mawd

88'

O. Prokopp← N. Yacubi

88'

A. Minko← A. Farhadi

Wolfsburg

BAK

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Yacubi

Manager: D. Bauer

61'▲K. Šimić←▼T. Benedict

69'▲K. Soylu←▼L. Köhler

69'▲Y. Chebil←▼E. Dittrich

88'▲O. Prokopp←▼N. Yacubi

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

ŠimićSoyluChebilProkoppBörnerCostaBrammer

Manager: J. Eckert

84'▲A. Bedford←▼A. Keles

84'▲F. Hartmann←▼M. Mawd

88'▲A. Minko←▼A. Farhadi

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

BedfordHartmannMinkoYosmaDietrichKopalSambale