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Wolfsberger AC vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
11/24/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 15Lavanttal-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Wolfsberger AC47%
×Draw24%
SV Mattersburg29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.74
SV Mattersburg
1.32

Wolfsberger AC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 31 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
71%
Wolfsberger AC or SV Mattersburg
76%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
25%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
82%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
52%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
25%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
73%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
38%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
62%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
47%
level
24%
SV Mattersburg scores more
29%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Wolfsberger AC 2–2 SV Mattersburg

Wolfsberger AC and SV Mattersburg drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Lavanttal-Arena in Wolfsberg.