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Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SCR Altach
SCR Altach
3/10/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Wolfsberger AC46%
×Draw25%
SCR Altach30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.59
SCR Altach
1.23

Wolfsberger AC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
SCR Altach
0.96

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
SCR Altach
1.60

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

SCR Altach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
70%
Wolfsberger AC or SCR Altach
75%
Draw or SCR Altach
54%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
23%
SCR Altach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
80%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
47%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
21%
SCR Altach 1+ goals
71%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
35%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
61%
SCR Altach (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
46%
level
25%
SCR Altach scores more
30%

Wolfsberger AC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach

Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.