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SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
11/22/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 14Cashpoint-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

SCR Altach33%
×Draw25%
Wolfsberger AC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.30
Wolfsberger AC
1.47

Wolfsberger AC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.15
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.35
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
59%
SCR Altach or Wolfsberger AC
75%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
67%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
15%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
73%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
37%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
14%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
77%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
43%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
45%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 128 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.15 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + SCR Altach defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SCR Altach scores more
33%
level
25%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
41%

Wolfsberger AC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC

SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 in Bundesliga on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Cashpoint-Arena in Altach.