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Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
10/27/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 11Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Wolfsberger AC27%
×Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.29
Red Bull Salzburg
1.83

Red Bull Salzburg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
50%
Wolfsberger AC or Red Bull Salzburg
77%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
73%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
11%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
72%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
37%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
14%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
84%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
54%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
35%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
27%
level
23%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
50%

Red Bull Salzburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Wolfsberger AC 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg

Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.