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Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
4/23/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 5Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg56%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberger AC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.04
Wolfsberger AC
1.24

Red Bull Salzburg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.62
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.88
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
77%
Red Bull Salzburg or Wolfsberger AC
79%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
44%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
33%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
87%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
60%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
33%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
71%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
35%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
71%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
56%
level
21%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
23%

Red Bull Salzburg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC

Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.