Wolfsberger AC 0–2 Red Bull Salzburg

Wolfsberger AC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

N. Okafor 51'

J. Onguéné 15'

9/25/2021

Bundesliga · Round 9Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Wolfsberger AC27%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsberger ACExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.83

Wolfsberger AC

1.30

Red Bull Salzburg

1.83

Red Bull Salzburg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 127 away

1.58

creates per match

2.15

1.51

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.58

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.51

Red Bull Salzburg

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw

50%

Wolfsberger AC or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

73%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

12%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

73%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

37%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

14%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

84%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

54%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

35%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.02 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.30

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more

27%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

50%

Red Bull Salzburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Sučić

Red Bull Salzburg · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

41'

44'

44'

46'

K. Stratznig← E. Peretz

51'

56'

59'

65'

65'

77'

D. Vizinger← T. Baribo

77'

C. Adamu← N. Oka

90'

Mohamed Camara

90+2'

D. Guindo← A. Ulmer

90+2'

A. Bernède← B. Aaronson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolfsbergerRed

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots16

2Corners10

12Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots16

0On Target7

6Off Target4

1Blocked5

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

269Total Passes542

156Accurate Passes420

58%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0