Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 127+ matches
Wolfsberger AC27%
Red Bull Salzburg50%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Red Bull Salzburg creates 41% more chances
Season form · 130 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wolfsberger AC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches
Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.02 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.30
Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Red Bull Salzburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Wolfsberger AC host Red Bull Salzburg on Sunday, 28 April 2019 at 12:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg
Wolfsberger AC beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 in Bundesliga on April 28, 2019.
Goals: K. Friesenbichler (35'), F. Gulbrandsen (66'), M. Ritzmaier (72').
Red Bull Salzburg controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 20.
The match was played at Lavanttal-Arena in Wolfsberg.