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Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
4/20/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 4Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Wolfsberger AC38%
×Draw24%
Rapid Vienna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.52
Rapid Vienna
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 132 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Rapid Vienna
1.49

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Rapid Vienna
1.47

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Rapid Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
63%
Wolfsberger AC or Rapid Vienna
76%
Draw or Rapid Vienna
62%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
18%
Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
78%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
45%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
20%
Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
78%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
44%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
51%
Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
38%
level
24%
Rapid Vienna scores more
37%

Wolfsberger AC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna

Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 5-1 in Bundesliga on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.