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Wolfsberger AC II vs WSPG Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
7/30/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II37%
×Draw24%
WSPG Wels39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
1.54
WSPG Wels
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
WSPG Wels
1.73

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
WSPG Wels
1.30

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

WSPG Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
61%
Wolfsberger AC II or WSPG Wels
76%
Draw or WSPG Wels
63%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
18%
WSPG Wels wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
79%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
45%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
20%
WSPG Wels 1+ goals
79%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
47%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
49%
WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
37%
level
24%
WSPG Wels scores more
39%

WSPG Wels at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wolfsberger AC II 1–4 WSPG Wels

WSPG Wels beat Wolfsberger AC II 4-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.