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Wolfsberger AC II vs Wallern / Marienkirchen — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Wallern / Marienkirchen
9/15/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 7Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II47%
×Draw23%
Wallern / Marienkirchen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.35

Wolfsberger AC II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.27

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.76

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

Wallern / Marienkirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
71%
Wolfsberger AC II or Wallern / Marienkirchen
77%
Draw or Wallern / Marienkirchen
53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
26%
Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
83%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
53%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
26%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals
74%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals
39%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
62%
Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 1.27 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
47%
level
23%
Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more
29%

Wolfsberger AC II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wolfsberger AC II 2–0 Wallern / Marienkirchen

Wolfsberger AC II beat Wallern / Marienkirchen 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.