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Wolfsberger AC II vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gurten
Gurten
9/5/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 6Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II37%
×Draw24%
Gurten38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
1.48
Gurten
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 106 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
Gurten
1.18

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
62%
Wolfsberger AC II or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
63%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
18%
Gurten wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
77%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
43%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
19%
Gurten 1+ goals
78%
Gurten 2+ goals
44%
Gurten 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
49%
Gurten (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gurten attack 1.58 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
37%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
38%

Gurten at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC II vs Gurten

Gurten beat Wolfsberger AC II 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.