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Wolfsberger AC II vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
10/1/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 10Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II44%
×Draw23%
ASK Klagenfurt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
1.75
ASK Klagenfurt
1.48

Wolfsberger AC II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 25 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
67%
Wolfsberger AC II or ASK Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
56%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
23%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
83%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
52%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
25%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
77%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
43%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
57%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
44%
level
23%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
33%

Wolfsberger AC II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC II vs ASK Klagenfurt

ASK Klagenfurt beat Wolfsberger AC II 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.