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Wolfsberg vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wels
Wels
9/29/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 10ATSV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wolfsberg63%
×Draw19%
Wels18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberg
2.26
Wels
1.11

Wolfsberg creates 104% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wolfsberg
1.63
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Wolfsberg
1.13
Wels
2.89

finishing

Wolfsberg+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberg ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wolfsberg or draw
82%
Wolfsberg or Wels
81%
Draw or Wels
37%

Winning margin

Wolfsberg wins by 2+
40%
Wels wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wolfsberg 1+ goals
89%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
66%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
39%
Wels 1+ goals
67%
Wels 2+ goals
30%
Wels 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
78%
Wels (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberg at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberg attack 1.63 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.26

Wels attack 1.09 + Wolfsberg defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wolfsberg scores more
63%
level
19%
Wels scores more
18%

Wolfsberg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Wolfsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wolfsberg 6–0 Wels

Wolfsberg beat Wels 6-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at ATSV Arena in Wolfsberg.