Wolfsberg 2–1 ASK Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

Wolfsberg

FT

2 – 1

ASK Klagenfurt

4/28/2023

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27ATSV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wolfsberg45%

×Draw22%

ASK Klagenfurt33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolfsbergExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.66

Wolfsberg

1.98

ASK Klagenfurt

1.66

Wolfsberg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 33 away

2.36

creates per match

1.94

1.38

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wolfsberg

2.36

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

Wolfsberg

1.38

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberg+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberg ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wolfsberg or draw

67%

Wolfsberg or ASK Klagenfurt

78%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

55%

Winning margin

Wolfsberg wins by 2+

25%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wolfsberg 1+ goals

86%

Wolfsberg 2+ goals

59%

Wolfsberg 3+ goals

31%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

81%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

49%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberg (draw refunded)

58%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberg at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberg attack 2.36 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.98

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + Wolfsberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolfsberg scores more

45%

level

22%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

33%

Wolfsberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolfsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberg vs ASK Klagenfurt

Wolfsberg beat ASK Klagenfurt 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at ATSV Arena in Wolfsberg.

Wolfsberg vs ASK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wolfsberg vs ASK Klagenfurt