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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
0 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
2/27/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska21%
×Draw23%
Wisła Puławy56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.04
Wisła Puławy
1.83

Wisła Puławy creates 76% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
44%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Wisła Puławy
77%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
79%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
8%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
65%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
28%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
9%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
84%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
54%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
28%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
21%
level
23%
Wisła Puławy scores more
56%

Wisła Puławy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 0–1 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.