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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Tomasovia Tomaszów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
4/22/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska48%
×Draw24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.71
Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.25

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska creates 37% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Tomasovia Tomaszów
0.94

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.00

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
72%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Tomasovia Tomaszów
76%
Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów
52%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
26%
Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
82%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
51%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
71%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
36%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
63%
Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
48%
level
24%
Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
28%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3–2 Tomasovia Tomaszów

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.