Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
3 – 2
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
6/12/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 41Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska39%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.40
Stal Kraśnik
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
64%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
61%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
18%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
75%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
41%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
17%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
74%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
38%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
52%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
39%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
36%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3–2 Stal Kraśnik

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Stal Kraśnik 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.